Ranking each NHL team's current and future goaltending outlook, Part 1: The bottom 10 (2024)

By Sean McIndoe, Scott Wheeler and Jesse Granger

So you want to talk about the future of NHL goaltending? Good luck.

No really, good luck. You’ll need it. Predicting what will happen with NHL goaltenders in the next game is tough enough, let alone looking years down the line. As just one example, have a look back at how NHL GMs ranked the league’s goaltending tiers just three years ago, when Darcy Kuemper was better than Igor Shesterkin, and Juuse Saros and Linus Ullmark couldn’t even crank the top 20 because they were trailing behind Elvis Merzlikins and Mackenzie Blackwood. Over half the players on that list aren’t even starters anymore. A lot can change in the crease, and quickly.

So sure, somewhere out there, right now, a goalie you’ve barely heard of is getting ready to have an out-of-nowhere star turn that will earn him Vezina votes, while somewhere else, a highly paid star we all consider a sure thing is about to face plant and take his team’s season with them. You just can’t predict this stuff with any certainty.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t try. And it doesn’t mean that you can’t put together a snapshot of where the league stands right now. That’s what three of us have set out to do, with a summer project that looks to rank each team’s goaltending outlook.

The basic question here: How good should each team feel about their goaltending situation, both for right now and peering into the future?

Here’s how this will work. We’ve given each of the 32 teams a ranking in three categories:

Current goaltending: How good is their goaltending at the NHL level right now? How good does it project to be in the near term, which we define as the next three years? This section includes the two goalies who are expected to start the 2024-25 season, as well as anyone else in the system who can be projected to play games. The Athletic’s goaltending expert, Jesse Granger, handled this section.

Future prospects: This section ranks each team’s goaltenders in the system who’ve yet to establish themselves as full-time NHLers, with a focus on ceiling and upside. Prospect expert Scott Wheeler weighs in here.

Note that in theory, there can be some overlap between the first two sections. Yaroslav Askarov is a prospect but will almost certainly spend meaningful time in the NHL over the next three years. Jake Oettinger is the Stars’ starter now, and at just 25 years old he’s also their future. That’s OK, because Jesse and Scott are looking at those players from two different perspectives: How good they are now (Jesse), how good they can be and for how long at their eventual peak (Scott).

Cap and contracts: Who makes what, and for how many years? Ideally, a team will have the security of having its good goaltenders locked in at a reasonable price and term. In a hard-cap league, a good player making too much for too long may be a negative asset, so contracts matter. There’s going to be some guesswork here, as some key players need new deals. For example, Shesterkin hasn’t signed an extension with the Rangers yet, but that doesn’t mean we just assume that he will walk as an unrestricted free agent in 2025. The key is that this section is about getting value from good players for as long as possible, not simply having the lowest cap hit you can. Sean McIndoe handles this section, with cap info from PuckPedia.

For each category, teams were ranked from 1 to 32. Those scores were then weighted, with “current goaltending” getting a 1.0 weight, while “future prospects” was given 0.75 to recognize the difficulty in peering too far into the future. “Cap and contracts” was weighted at 0.5; it’s important, but history shows us that there are ways to wiggle out of bad deals, although it may be painful.

This will be a three-part series. Today: The bottom 10.

32. Columbus Blue Jackets

Current: 30

Granger: Since his breakout rookie season in 2019-20, Elvis Merzlikins’ play has slowly declined. He bounced back slightly last year but was still a well below-average starter. Daniil Tarasov showed some flashes that he could be ready to take the starting role in 2024-25, and I liked the little I saw from undrafted rookie Jet Greaves, but the Blue Jackets are lacking a true No. 1.

Future: 20

Wheeler: I don’t see anything in signed goalie Nolan Lalonde, who has struggled to win starts in the OHL, but the Blue Jackets have three other young goalies who all have some real merits. The diminutive Sergei Ivanov is one of my favorites and was one of the stories of the KHL season last year. Evan Gardner was a nice story in the WHL as well, playing 30 games to excellent results as a rookie in the league at 17 and 18 to get drafted in the second round despite a small sample size. Greaves looks like a solid 2/3 already and was one of the better goalies outside the NHL last season. They clearly aren’t fussy about size, either, because all of those last three are about 6 feet. One or two of them could become a real option for them, though, and I thought about slotting them a little higher in the future ranking on the back of that.

Cap: 32

McIndoe: At $5.4 million for the next three seasons, you probably couldn’t give Merzlikins away for free right now. The younger guys will be cheap, but that’s about where the good news ends.

Bottom line: Bad goaltending today, decent prospects, and a potential anchor of a contract clogging up the works. The Blue Jackets take the basem*nt, and it wasn’t especially close.

31. San Jose Sharks

Current: 23

Granger: When I watch Mackenzie Blackwood play, he passes the eye test as a No. 1 goalie. He has exceptional athleticism and anticipates plays well, especially off the rush. But in six years in the NHL, he has yet to put it all together consistently. He has produced a sub-.900 save percentage in three straight seasons, and while he did play admirably behind a historically bad Sharks defense, I’m not sure he’ll ever reach his potential.

Future: 30

Wheeler: Both Magnus Chrona and Georgi Romanov had some nice stretches of play last year and made their NHL debuts, but they’ll be 24 and 25 next season. Christian Kirsch (who was an honorable mention for my draft ranking this year) might be the only other goalie prospect worth tracking behind them. Yaroslav Korostelyov is still very early in his development process as a seventh-round pick who was one of the younger players in his draft.

Cap: 21

McIndoe: You get what you pay for. The Sharks are paying $5.75 million for just one year of probably bad goaltending. In a season that should be a write-off, the “bad goaltending” is less important than the “just one year.”

Bottom line: They’re bad, but it’s part of a plan. As the rebuild churns on, they’ll need to find their guy somewhere.

30. Pittsburgh Penguins

Current: 27

Granger: The floor for the Penguins’ goaltending is higher than several of the teams above them on this list. Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic are proven commodities, but I just don’t see a ceiling for any goalie in the organization to become a difference-maker in the next three years unless AHL standout Joel Blomqvist makes a big leap.

Future: 18

Wheeler: Blomqvist was one of the better young goalies in the AHL last year and one of the better young goalies in Finland before that. Sergei Murashov is one of the better young goalies in Russia, too. Between those two, the Pens have two strong goalie prospects. I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot for Taylor Gauthier even if he’s more of a No. 4 in the end as well.

Cap: 30

McIndoe: Jarry has four years left at $5.375 million, a major gamble that’s on shaky ground right now. With Nedeljkovic at $2.5 million through 2026, that means the Penguins are on the hook for almost $8 million for each of the next two seasons for goaltending that might not even be league average.

29. Seattle Kraken

Current: 16

Granger: The Kraken have signed some pretty bad goalie contracts over their short history, but Joey Daccord came in with a brilliant rookie season to rescue them. Considering his long road to this point, and the fickle nature of the position, I’m not quite ready to crown Daccord, but if he maintains last year’s form moving forward, Seattle certainly belongs higher on this list.

Future: 29

Wheeler: The Kraken have a number of goalie prospects, but I’m really only much of a believer in 20-year-old Niklas Kokko, who has put together a respectable profile across parts of three seasons in Liiga already. Kim Saarinen, whom they drafted in the third round in 2024, has size, is a summer birthday, and has some believers in Finland, would be their No. 2 goalie prospect for me. I don’t know what they saw in free agent signing Victor Ostman, and both Visa Vedenpaa and Semyon Vyazovoy (he had a good year in the VHL last year but is 21) don’t look like they’re on paths to get signed.

Cap: 29

McIndoe: At $5.9 million for another three years on a 32-year-old who hasn’t hit .900 since Colorado, Philipp Grubauer is arguably among the worst goalie contracts in the league right now. The only saving grace here is that Daccord is cheap, but even that’s a double-edged sword because he has just one year left and properly pricing an extension for a career depth guy with one good year will be tricky.

Bottom line: Daccord’s out-of-nowhere heroics last year cloud the picture here, while probably saving the Kraken from an even worse ranking.

28. Los Angeles Kings

Current: 31

Granger: The Kings have some interesting prospects who could make a difference down the road, but in the immediate future the goaltending doesn’t look promising. This summer, they traded for Darcy Kuemper, who is 34 and coming off the worst season in his career. He had success in his first stint in L.A. (albeit seven years ago), so perhaps playing behind a strong defensive team will allow him to find some old form.

Future: 7

Wheeler: The Kings are one of the only teams in the league with three legitimate goalie prospects. They don’t have a goalie prospect of the caliber of an Askarov, a Jesper Wallstedt, a Jacob Fowler, a Devon Levi or a Dustin Wolf, but all three of Erik Portillo, Carter George and Hampton Slukynsky are B-plus prospects and I’m a fan of each. Portillo’s game comes with some mistakes but he’s got a unique size-puckhandling-ability profile, and while George and Slukynsky are both a little on the smaller side, each has poise, movement, technical ability, and the demeanor you look for. There will be an NHL goalie or two out of that group.

Cap: 31

McIndoe: At $5.25 million for the next three years for a 34-year-old, the Kuemper contract has disaster written all over it. You can absolutely understand why the Kings felt like this was a better risk than seven more years of Pierre-Luc Dubois, but they need a ton to go right with Kuemper for this to just get into the “not terrible” zone.

Bottom line: The Kings are the first team on our list that would probably consider themselves contenders. At forward and defense, maybe they are, but they’re left rolling the dice in goal and paying a high price to do it.

27. Chicago Blackhawks

Current: 26

Granger: Laurent Brossoit has consistently been one of the best backups in the NHL and should get his first real opportunity to be more than that this year in Chicago. Veteran Petr Mrázek is also coming off a strong year. Arvid Söderblom, 24, struggled as a rookie but still has the potential to be a starter, and highly-touted prospect Drew Commesso just began his pro career. There are plenty of options with potential in the Chicago crease, but none has proven it yet.

Future: 9

Wheeler: The Blackhawks have only two goalie prospects of any consequence, but Commesso and Adam Gajan are two top-20 goalie prospects in the sport for me even after Gajan had an up-and-down post-draft season. They’re the only team other than the Red Wings with two goalies in my top-20 drafted goalie prospects rankings. Commesso is a near-lock to play in the NHL, and Gajan has real potential because of his size, athletic ability and competitiveness.

Cap: 28

McIndoe: It’s pretty clear that the plan is to ride it out with Mrázek and Brossoit for the next two seasons and then figure out what the future looks like. The two veterans carry a combined $7.55 million hit for the next two years, which is manageable for a rebuilding team but certainly doesn’t feel like great value.

Bottom line: Help is on the way, but for now the position is a question mark.

26. Philadelphia Flyers

Current: 28

Granger: Samuel Ersson started hot in his rookie season before fading down the stretch (along with the overall play in front of him). He’s only 24, but he’ll now be competing with newly-signed Ivan Fedotov, who comes over from the KHL with an impressive resume. His save percentage has hovered around .920 in his last three seasons in Russia, and while he didn’t play well in his first small taste of NHL action last year he should get a chance to prove he’s the guy in 2024-25.

Future: 11

Wheeler: Ersson, 24, is starting to cut his teeth in the NHL, and the Flyers have three goalie prospects of some consequence behind him. They’ve signed Belarusian Alexei Kolosov after parts of four strong seasons in the KHL and 2023 second-rounder Carson Bjarnason after two decent seasons in the WHL (he’ll be back with Brandon this year and while I’m lower on him than most, I do see the appeal). And 2023 third-rounder Yegor Zavragin will get signed if he continues to play for SKA next season like he did for Mamonty Yugry the last three seasons.

Cap: 19

McIndoe: The Fedotov deal is a bit of a weird one for an unproven player, although the Flyers did what they had to do under the circ*mstances. At $3.275 million, he could be a bust or a bargain or somewhere in between, but the deal lasts only two years, and we should know much more about the player by then. Ersson is cheap. Unfortunately, Cal Petersen is not; his $5 million AAV may be the worst for any goalie in the league right now, although it has only one year left and gets a little cheaper assuming it’s in the AHL.

Bottom line: This year is about shedding Peterson’s deal and seeing what they have in Ersson and Fedotov, which isn’t a bad plan at all.

25. Toronto Maple Leafs

Current: 21

Granger: Considering the promising rookie season for Joseph Woll and the impressive numbers Anthony Stolarz has put up as a backup, there’s a clear path for the Maple Leafs to rise up this ranking in a hurry. Neither has proven he can be a true No. 1 starter in the NHL, so for now the Leafs sit firmly behind the teams with one.

Future: 23

Wheeler: Dennis Hildeby’s development in two seasons in the SHL and AHL since the Leafs selected him in 2022 has been really positive and he’s now solidly their No. 4 goalie behind Woll, Stolarz and Matt Murray. Both of their signed Russians have shown some promise. I’m much higher on Artur Akhtyamov, who is coming to North America this season, than Vyacheslav Peksa, who was a rookie in North America last season. Akhtyamov is a name Leafs fans should get familiar with. (Their third Russian goalie prospect, Timofei Obvintsev, is a long way away.)

Cap: 14

McIndoe: The Leafs continue to try to go cheap on goaltending, which at least means they’re not tied into any anchor contracts. They’ve gambled on Woll’s extension, giving him a three-year deal with a $3.66 million hit that kicks in next year. That’s a classic risk that could pay off, with this coming season telling that tale. For now, Woll is dirt cheap for one more year, and Stolarz was reasonable for a UFA signing.

Bottom line: There’s some potential here for the Woll plan to work if he can stay healthy and continue to develop. Things always go according to plan in Toronto, right?

24. Washington Capitals

Current: 25

Granger: Based on performance alone, the Capitals deserve to be higher than this, but I still have some hesitancy in putting full trust in two goalies with underwhelming pedigrees and abnormal career paths. Charlie Lindgren was brilliant last year, even receiving a handful of Vezina and Hart Trophy votes, but how many regular starters in the NHL had their breakout season at age 30? Logan Thompson comes over in a trade, and while he’s played at a high level in Vegas, it was behind a stout defense. This season will tell us a lot about the immediate future in net for the Caps.

Future: 24

Wheeler: Clay Stevenson and Mitchell Gibson aren’t young anymore, but both are good (Stevenson in particular). Behind them, the Capitals also have NTDP starter and Notre Dame commit Nicholas Kempf, whom I thought warranted his fourth-round selection in 2024, as well as France’s Antoine Keller (who is going back to Switzerland and has signed with Lausanne in the NL following a fine season and strong playoffs in the QMJHL) and Garin Bjorklund (who looks like AHL/ECHL depth).

Cap: 4

McIndoe: Time will tell whether turning Darcy Kuemper’s bad deal into Dubois was a wise move, but for our purposes, it was a home run, as it left the Caps with the cheapest goaltending in the league. That lasts only one year, mind you, after which they’ll have to figure out a plan that will probably be significantly more expensive.

Bottom line: If Lindgren is the real deal, the Caps move up the list. If not, they’ll at least have lots of cap flexibility to come up with a new plan.

23. Carolina Hurricanes

Current: 19

Granger: Frederik Andersen showed in the final month of the regular season he’s still capable of playing at an incredibly high level — at least for stints. At 34 years old, his days of being a true workhorse are likely behind him, but Pyotr Kochetkov has improved each of the last three seasons and projects as a potential No. 1 in the not-so-distant future.

Future: 26

Wheeler: Kochetkov, 25, and Yaniv Perets, 24, are both exiting their prospects age but Kochetkov is an NHLer in my books and I believe Perets, despite his sub-.900 numbers in the ECHL last year, should be a good AHL goalie. They’ve got a ton of other guys as well, even if the rest of them are long shots. They’ve now signed 19-year-old Ruslan Khazheyev, a 2023 fifth-rounder with good size who was excellent in Russia’s junior ranks for Chelyabinsk the last two seasons, though he’s still a long shot and a long way away. And while they haven’t signed any of Patrik Hamrla, Nikita Quapp and Jakub Vondras, fans will be familiar with their names if they’ve watched the U18 worlds or the world juniors in recent years (though I don’t see much in any of them).

Cap: 7

McIndoe: From a cap perspective, the plan appears to be for Andersen and his expiring $3.4 million deal to pass the torch to the younger Kochetkov, who has three years at $2 million. If it works, it’s great value. If it doesn’t, the Hurricanes should at least have some space to throw at a new idea.

Bottom line: A lot is riding on Kochetkov here. For what it’s worth, the Hurricanes were well ahead of the Leafs and Capitals, and within a fraction of a point behind the first few teams on Part 2 of the list.

That’s a wrap for this first part. Check back on Wednesday for the second part as we count down from 22 to 11.

(Top photos of Elvis Merzlikins and Mackenzie Blackwood: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)