Joker:
Spoiler
Wednesday 10thOctober 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) CinemaxX Bremen
Wednesday Previews:
OV 20:00: 226 / 232
OV 20:15: 49 / 49
20:30: 328 / 342
23:10: 101 / 232
Total: 704 / 855 -> 82.3%!!
Thursday:
2D 14:30: 17 / 342
2D 17:00: 88 / 186
2D 20:30: 261 / 342
2D 22:30: 33 / 297
OV 2D 19:30: 162 / 297
OV 2D 23:00: 14 / 186
Total: 575 / 1650 -> 34.85%
Friday:
2D 14:00: 0 / 342
2D 17:30: 40 / 342
2D 20:30: 216 / 342
2D 22:30: 51 / 297
OV 2D 19:30: 135 / 297
OV 2D 23:00: 13 / 186
Total: 455 / 1806 -> 25.19%
Saturday:
2D 11:30: 0 / 85
2D 14:00: 4 / 342
2D 17:00: 49 / 186
2D 20:30: 154 / 297
2D 22:30: 27 / 342
OV 2D 20:00: 64 / 186
OV 2D 23:00: 5 / 186
Total: 303 / 1624 -> 18.66%
Sunday:
2D 11:30: 0 / 85
2D 14:15: 15 / 342
2D 17:00: 23/ 186
2D 20:30: 87 / 342
2D 22:30: 0 / 297
OV 2D 19:30: 22 / 297
OV 2D 23:00: 0 / 186
Total: 147 / 1735 -> 8.47%
Total: 1480 / 6815 -> 21.72%
Total wP: 2184 / 7670 -> 28.47%
Wednesday 10thOctober 2019MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt
Wednesday Previews:
OV 20:00: 586 / 624
OV 23:00: 237 / 624
20:00: 430 / 642
23:00: 264 / 642
Total: 1517 / 2532 -> 59.9%
Thursday:
2D 14:15: 13 / 344
2D 17:15: 112 / 344
2D 20:15: 389 / 642
2D 23:15: 50 / 642
OV 2D 14:00: 47 / 624
OV 2D 17:00: 99 / 624
OV 2D 20:00: 498 / 624
OV 2D 23:00: 37 / 624
Total: 1245 / 4468 -> 27.9%
Friday:
2D 14:15: 13 / 642
2D 17:15: 59 / 642
2D 20:15: 329 / 642
2D 23:15: 56 / 642
OV 2D 14:00: 47 / 624
OV 2D 17:00: 99 / 624
OV 2D 20:00: 396 / 624
OV 2D 23:00: 40 / 624
Total: 1039 / 5064 -> 20.5%
Saturday:
2D 14:15: 16 / 642
2D 17:15: 39 / 351
2D 20:15: 155 / 351
2D 23:15: 43 / 351
OV 2D 14:00: 34 / 624
OV 2D 17:00: 108 / 624
OV 2D 20:00: 289 / 624
OV 2D 23:00: 31 / 624
Total: 715 / 4191 -> 17.1%
Sunday:
2D 14:15: 12 / 642
2D 17:15: 62 / 642
2D 20:15: 63 / 642
2D 23:15: 0 / 642
OV 2D 14:00: 27 / 624
OV 2D 17:00: 90 / 624
OV 2D 20:00: 84 / 624
OV 2D 23:00: 2 / 624
Total: 340 / 5064 -> 6.7%
Total TFSS: 3339 / 18787 -> 17.77%
Total PTFSS: 4856 / 21319 -> 22.78%
(T-0):
Previews: XX + 704 + 1517 = 2221
Th: XX + 575 + 1245 = 1820
Fri: XX + 455 + 1039 = 1494
Sat: XX + 303 + 715 = 1018
Sun: XX + 147 + 340 = 487
TFSS: XX + 1480 + 3339 = 4819 / 25602 -> 18.82%
PTFSS: XX + 2184 + 4856 = 7040 / 28989 -> 24.29%
Adjusted adm. (without CS Bremen) only TFSS:
Wend (wo Previews):
Aladdin: 339 => 4102k
John Wick 3: 522 => 2633k
Godzilla: 184 => 3677k
Rocketman: 128 => 4479k
Dark Phoenix: 236 => 2533k
MIBI: 162 => 3352k
Five Feet Apart: 59 => 8632k
Spider-Man FFH: 1672 => 1251k
TLK: 2142 => 2074k
H&S: 625 => 3792k
Hollywood: 1585 => 1335k
TS4: 280 => 4101k
It: 1880 => 1513k
WOW
The presales are way stronger than I expected. (In this list the different presales multis can be seen, Hollywood, It 2 and Spidey had the worst. TLK’s is surprisingly bad too and Five Feet Apart had an insane one. Shows that besides genre it’s also important how big the hype is.
None the less are the preview numbers 2221 tickets at two theatres so big that I think previews alone should be close to 100k (I know that it starts in 690 theatres but not all have previews and the two I counted tend to – I think – overperform for superhero related movies and one is in the top 10 cinemas in Germany and the other should be somewhere around #30 or so) so thinking they together make up 2.2% or a little more is probably reasonable. (might be a higher share for previews).
Even if I say that due to the hype the presale multi is worse than Spidey’s by quite a margin (let’s say presales multi is only half) that would still be 625k (+100k previews = 725k PTFSS).
As the Cinemaxx might have overindexed a little due to the Cinestar Bremen still being closed none the less I am going to go with 625k for the true weekend* could obviously go both ways, comps suggest a way stronger opening or the hype and the press could make it come down from this high.
Quick note at the end – previews might be overestimated – I have no idea how they behave. I find them the hardest to determine – I suck at predicting the rest but previews is always pure luck.
*I really hope that after the weekend I can say damn, why didn’t I go with what I initially wrote (850k +100k). But right now I decide against it because I have no comps from movies with comparable hype and I think this might turn out to be really, really presales heavy.
AND it's Germany... so it will disappoint. "disappoint" (obviously the best DC opening (540+k wouldn't be disappointing in any way).
EDIT: The presales are also kinda spread out through the weekend - obviously really strong for Thursday and Friday but even Sunday is good.
Edited by Taruseth
